My Thoughts on the Metaverse and its Implications Part 2
On my continued journey to appear as a raving madman I wanted to continue jotting some of my thoughts on the evolution and gradual encompassing of all things by the “metaverse”. This piece follows my initial thoughts here with potentially more parts adding on additional ideas with older thoughts being matured or reflected on in the future.
After I had drafted my initial reaction to the Facebook rebranding announcement I witnessed a very quick overtaking across known media channels with mentions of “metaverse” — almost all of which I found overly pessimistic, dismissive, or downright fantasy. It got so bad I truly began to wonder if I were a madman under the guise of some enlightened understanding of digital evolution or if most people just didn’t get it. Today I remain in my conviction that most people don’t get it but that's okay. Facebook, now Meta’s business strategy for the next 5 years might very well rely on people not understanding the true nature of its goals and rebranding until it's too late.
Let's me try to first deconstruct some of the more prevalent views against the metaverse:
1. The Metaverse is a Virtual 3D Space
As stated in my first reaction, I don’t believe the metaverse is simply VR Chat+ as much as the people in big tech marketing keep pushing this narrative that we are all going to be taking meetings piloting 3D avatars with no legs in a beach world (looking at you Microsoft Mesh). I stick with my belief that the metaverse is simply a collection of digital activities that eventually spawned a digital twin of our real physical world, a parallel universe of sorts that is accessed by devices that can connect to this world typically via the internet. This world is much more open, diverse, and most importantly fast — emphasized by me bolding and italicizing it.
Historically our experiences as human beings were limited by geography and the distance we could cover in said geography whether on foot, by horse, or nowadays the furthest distances by airplanes. The metaverse in contrast is not limited by physical space nor are there any actual distance people need to cover to go places. A few clicks/taps and entire worlds open up for access, this concept is powerful and redefines how businesses need to adapt in order to be successful in this world. After all, they are essentially competing not just within their local geographies but against everyone. In the metaverse, attention becomes the greatest commodity.
Following this thought, I included diversity because everyone has a place in the metaverse as well. Every niche interest or hobby can become a connecting point between millions of people around the globe if none can be found within your physical vicinity. This presents a double-edged sword as many fringe groups can also retain a successful following or build an eco-chamber that supports dangerous views, something to be on the lookout for as a society.
2. Nobody Will Buy Facebooks Metaverse
Nobody has to. I eluded to this during my first post but I firmly believe Facebook's goal is not to sell their VR Chat-Esque tech demo presented as what the metaverse can be, rather they want to finally birth and control a platform of their own. Every member in big tech wants to control a platform, an ecosystem of users using their services that forms a chunk of the broader market so large that the controlling company gets to call all the shots and reap all the benefits. You can think of it as building their own kingdom where they can do whatever they want and collect egregious taxes on their citizens or anyone who sets up shop on their land. The most recent example is when Apple, one of the largest if not the largest tech kingdom on the planet made changes to their user tracking policies that sent Facebook tumbling 25% off their market cap in a day. Of course, Facebook knows what's up as they had probably 0 say in this decision. In order to preserve their own power and influence, they need to control a kingdom of their own and they’ve made big bets in the metaverse ground zero of their expansion plan.
Over the next few years, we will see Facebook put on the “friend of the people” face and release all sorts of tools and services (IE VR SDKs) to help metaverse builders and creators. In doing so they do what Google did strategically so long ago when giving out Android for free, to control the portals of the metaverse and ultimately a platform that people rely on to function in the metaverse.
One side of this bet even I am unsure about is how prevalent VR will truly be. Facebook seems hell-bent on continuing to hammer down the barrier to entry for VR with the price to purchase capable VR headsets exponentially decreasing year over year. In 2021 Oculus headsets were already showing signs of continued exponential growth compared to traditional game consoles and I don’t see this trend slowing down, exacerbated by the still ongoing pandemic.
3. It Will Be Unhealthy Committing to a Digital Life
If you are gen z like me, hell if you didn’t spend the last decade in an Amish community you’ve already committed to digital life. We spend so much of our most precious resource: time, within social media to interact with people, YouTube, Netflix and co. for entertainment and especially since 2019 delivery apps, Amazon, Shopify stores + e-commerce pages of every single retailer in the world buying and consuming. Dating has become majority digital through Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, and infinite spinoffs that continue churning out new concepts as soon as we’re tired of the old ones. I simply don’t buy the notion that people will be able to choose not to participate in the metaverse, you’re already living in it. We are now seeing even traditional experiences replicated digitally as well, concerts and movies we can now watch and attend through existing metaverse platforms. While I don’t believe they will replace existing social outings entirely I certainly think the lines between virtual and physical will continue getting blurred. What's more, is that one doesn’t have the replace the other as the two worlds can simply co-exist. People can do more by doing real-world activities first, then doing metaverse activities in between. In this sense, we as humans can experience more than ever before on a faster scale and also become infinitely more productive.
I know in people's minds, there exists this picture whenever the metaverse is mentioned that we are all going to be the humans from Wall-E strapped to VR goggles and never see another human face to face. Let me first be candid and acknowledge that although it differs from my optimistic beliefs for the future it very well may be the eventual outcome. However, I will continue to remain optimistic about the benefits that the metaverse can bring as it continues evolving alongside technology.
Yours truly,
